Homicide in England and Wales 1898 to 2012

The latest crime figures for England and Wales confirm the drop in the murder rate is continuing. In the financial year 2011/12 there were 550 homicides initially recorded by police, compared to 638 in 2010/11. (Homicide being murder, manslaughter and infanticide)

Now put that into context with a look at the last 50 years, which shows that we are rapidly returning to levels last seen in the 1960s. (Note that the spike of 1047 in 2002/03 included the 172 victims attributed to Harold Shipman).

If you examine the 100 years between 1898 and 1997 you can see how homicide remained pretty steady (apart from spikes in 1942 and 1945) until the 1960s, when it shot upwards.

Whereas the population of England and Wales has grown steadily over the last two hundred years (there was no census data for 1941).

But what caused that rapid growth in homicides from the 1960s onwards? Was it the state of the economy, the new ‘permissive society’, a breakdown of ‘family values’, or the effect of hard drugs like heroin and cocaine? Or a complicated combination of these factors (and others, such as the way the data is recorded)? And why has that trend reversed? Heavier sentences? Better policing?

It has been suggested that the recent decrease is down to a sustained fall in the level of domestic violence, given that around two-thirds of murders are carried out by partners, former partners or family members. There now seems to be less tolerance of violence in society, perhaps driven by media coverage of crime.

Statistics from the ONS, Crime in England and Wales (released 19 July 2012), and Population estimates 2011 Census (released 16 July 2012).

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  1. It states “But what caused that rapid growth in homicides from the 1960s onwards? Was it the state of the economy, the new ‘permissive society’, a breakdown of ‘family values’, or the effect of hard drugs like heroin and cocaine? Or a complicated combination of these factors (and others, such as the way the data is recorded)? And why has that trend reversed? Heavier sentences? Better policing?”
    Without mentioning the abolition of the death penalty in 1965.
    What are the statistics for murder only during the period 1960 to 2015?
    What effect, if any, did the abolition of the death penalty have on these figures?
    The trend in homicides appears to reflect the population growth, is this the case?

  2. From a brief look at the population statistics there doesn’t appear to be any obvious correlation. (eg 1911 42m, 1961 52m, 2011 63m). The increase in homicides was mainly from 1960 until the late 1990s, and since then it has decreased.

    The abolition of the death penalty wouldn’t explain the massive increase in all types of crime from 1960s onwards… or the decrease since the late 1990s. Obviously this doesn’t mean it wasn’t a factor, just that it’s hard to know whether it was a significant factor or not.

  3. A simple way to check whether the death penalty is. Significant factor or not, is to introduce it in the UK ( following a referendum) and to observe what happens to the homicide rate for the ensuing years.

  4. Per capita graphs would be a lot more informative. Including per-young-male-capita, as that is the group that most tends towards violence. Very hard to interpret absolute figures.

    What I was wondering is – is the question that we have to explain “why was there an increase from the 1960s?”, or is it that we have to explain an unusual historically _low_ level in the 1950s? Is the post-50s rise actually just a case of regression to the mean and a return to the more usual level? Idly googling that is how I stumbled on this page.

    Generally I have the sense that a lot of people mistakenly take their youth as the historic ‘norm’, when it may have been an era with its own very specific unique conditions.

  5. Per capita increase in alcohol consumption kicks off around 1960, at the same time as the rise in homicides (https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm200910/cmselect/cmhealth/151/15106.htm). Since around 2003 it has begun to trend downwards (http://www.historyandpolicy.org/opinion-articles/articles/the-highs-and-lows-of-drinking-in-britain). This mirrors the trend in homicides since 1960. That there isn’t a decrease in homicides between 1900 and 1932, mirroring the fall in alcohol consumption may be largely due to the increase in population over this period. The homicide rate falls from around 1.05 per 100,000 in 1900, to 0.75 per 100,000 in 1932. By 1960 it has fallen further to 0.61 per 100,000. If we ignore the Shipman spike, it peaked at just over 1.5 per 100,000 in 2003, before falling back below 1 per 100,000 in 2012.

  6. This is definitely something worth examining more closely, given the proportion of cases that involve alcohol in some way or the other. Not just because alcohol perhaps makes people more likely to resort to violence, but also because pubs and clubs that serve alcohol attract large numbers of people, increasing the chances of an incident kicking off that might end up in a homicide. There’s a study in Finland that suggests the drop in homicides there is mainly explained by a decrease in the number of young men killing each other in drunken fights (usually during nights out).

    It’s also interesting that drug use appears to have declined during the same period late 90s to 2015 – suggesting that there is a wider explanation.

  7. Age demographics, I would imagine are the biggest factor driving murder rates. Overall population figures only reveal so much. Murderers, like most criminals, cluster around the age range 18-35. In WW2, nearly a half million men died, mostly in this age range, so it seems to fit that murder rates would be low in the years following the war. A baby boom began immediately after WW2, peaking in the 60s, leading to an increase in murders from the 60s, peaking in the 1990-2000s.

  8. I would think this is a very complicated picture. I couldn’t guess the figure but many people who would have been murder victims 100 years ago, now survive due to medical advances. It might be more informative to divide the murders into different categories.

  9. gun ban 1995. followed by a fifty percent increase in total homicide until 2004. (with less than 10% population increase for same time period)

    ROFL. They take away rights, and crime explodes. Gun restrictions are retarded. AUS saw their rate of armed robberies triple within three years of their gun ban.

  10. Homicide in London increased from the 1960s onwards, peaked in 2003, then declined by more than 50 per cent until 2014, and is now increasing again.

  11. Surely, two of the biggest factors in the rise in the murder rate post 1960 have been 1) criminalizing drug use and drug dealing in 1960 (or thereabouts), and 2) the steady rise in mass immigration to this country? The latter not accompanied by any significant increase in checks on exactly who is coming in. I’m not even sure the abolition of hanging has been so significant, even though I believe it should be brought back for serial killers and terrorists. It seems to me that we turned the UK into a huge market for illegal drugs back in 1960 and thereby attracted criminals from around the world, and then made it relatively easy for them to come here with their contraband. Whilst many on the Left in politics want to blame inequality, poverty, government austerity etc., none of their reasons for the much higher murder rate really stack up. In the 1930s, for example, poverty was real not relative and social services nonexistent, yet the murder rate (even on a per capita basis) was less than half the current level.

  12. Don’t forget advances in medical technology and incident response. IMO these are a major factor – probably THE major factor – in the recent fall in homicides. Violence itself is on the increase, despite the desperate attempts of the authorities to cover it up, especially in the big cities. If you compare medical care now with medical care 50 years ago, the discrepancy is so great that the homicide figures cannot even be compared.

  13. 1915 USA less than 300 homicide deaths 2015 14000 ? Yet medical advances make this US figure even more horrific. Crimes in Australia show an increase by criminals using knives. With the explosion of ICE drug usage robberies of small amounts of money has escalated. In WA 2018 there has been a 50 % decrease in ICE taking from 2017 due to severe penalties and education .

  14. It really seems to me that at least 300 innocent people are killed each year due to our determination to spare the lives of those prepared to kill. I cant see how this can be justified

  15. The vast majority of murders these days in London and other big cities are young black men or teenagers killing other young black men or teenagers. Homicide involving other categories of people are extremely rare, almost vanishingly so given the huge populations of people we’re talking about.

  16. Don’t think you can use the words “vast majority”. Take a look at the list put together by the BBC (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-46128268) and you can see for yourself.

    Of the 126 victims we have counted, around a quarter of them are women, which is still pretty significant.

    Of the 98 men, just over half (51) are aged between 11 and 30. (Roughly a third of all victims are aged between 16 and 24).

    It’s been widely reported that there has been a significant increase in domestic murders this year (although last year was a record low).

    But yes homicide in general is very rare in London when looked at as a ‘rate’ per population.

  17. Perhaps those above who blame the increase in homicide rates on the abolition of the death penalty in 1965 can explain why, in the USA, those states that have kept the death penalty have higher homicide rates than the states that have abolished it? Or why it is that countries which have abolished the death penalty in the last 20 years (eg Albania, Bulgaria, Latvia, Poland, South Africa, Ukraine, etc ) have all seen a decline in their homicide rates since then?

  18. It would be useful in this debate to look at the figures for manslaughter as this plea is used by defence lawyers to avoid a murder charge and a mandatory life sentence. It is likely that many of the murder cases in days gone by would now be downgraded to manslaughter. This of course will skew the figures but the result is the same. Namely that the victims have lost their lives.

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