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How safe is London?

We were recently sent an email by a worried student asking about the likelihood of being murdered in London. This is perhaps not surprising given the prominence given to reports of teenagers being stabbed to death or shot.

As we’ve repeatedly demonstrated, the number of homicide cases (both murder and manslaughter) has been going down steadily from a peak in 2003. Last year there were less than 100, which is returning to the levels last seen in the 60s and 70s.

London may have more crime than any other area, but this is mainly because there are more people in London (approximately eight million). As you can see, if you rate different police forces by the number of murders per 100,000 people, London is only tenth highest, with the worst being West Yorkshire. Having said that, it is higher than the avarage for England and Wales.

And if you look at it by country, then ‘England in Wales’ is doing better than both Scotland and Northern Ireland, although it’s some way behind Austria and even Italy.

The country with the highest ‘murder rate’ is Lithuania – which is of interest given the increase in the number of people from that country now living in London and the rest of the UK. According to the Office of National Statistics, there were 74,000 Lithuanians in the UK in 2010 compared to 4,000 in 2001.

According to the 2011 census there were just under 40,000 Lithuanians in London, although some believe the true figure may be double that. In some areas like Newham Lithuanians make up 2.7 per cent of the population.

Two Lithuanians were allegedly murdered in London last month alone (January 2013) but this is rare – there were two Lithuanian murder victims in the whole of 2012, none in 2011, two in 2010 and three in 2009. Generally the victims seem to die at the hands of fellow Lithuanians, in temporary accommodation or squats, and involving the excessive consumption of alcohol. (see the cases of Rolandas Vosylius, Paulius Riepsa and Alvydas Miksys.)

The recently-released figures for Homicide in England in Wales for the financial year 2011/12 (around 540 homicides in total) also contained a breakdown for gender and weapon (by percentage). As in London, most victims are male.

Apparent method of killing (percent)	Male victims (367 offences)	Female victims (172 offences)

Sharp instrument	39	38
Blunt instrument	10	9
Hitting, kicking etc. (without a weapon)	23	5
Strangulation, asphyxiation	4	26
Shooting	9	4
Burning	3	5
Poison or drugs	2	3
Other	11	10

It should also be pointed out that ‘stranger’ murders are actually quite rare. Most cases involve gang-related violence, domestic violence or fights at pubs or clubs. And while it’s always advisable not to walk alone in the streets at night, the likelihood of being murdered in London is very low indeed.

Review of 2012

The number of homicides in London fell by nearly 20 per cent from last year – with 97 victims compared to 117 in 2011 (Note this was later increased to 99 – see update below).

This continuing decrease in the murder rate – despite budget cuts in the police force – brings it down to levels not seen since the 1960s.

Nearly four out of five victims were male (75 out of 97). Only eight of the 97 were teenagers, compared to 15 in 2011.

Six victims were killed with guns (down from 13 in 2011) and 43 with knives (down from 57 in 2011). Most of the remaining victims were killed with no weapon (i.e. manual strangulation, punches, kicks). One victim was stabbed with a broken glass and another died after being mauled by a dog.

Here’s a chart of the homicides for each month – the average was just over eight.

The borough with the most homicides in 2012 was Croydon with seven. Of the ‘improving boroughs’, Lambeth went from 11 in 2011 to four in 2012, while Tower Hamlets decreased from nine to three and Bexley from five to one. The City of Westminster’s total jumped up from one to five.

At present only 12 of the 97 cases (12.4 per cent) remain ‘unsolved’ in the sense that nobody has yet been charged (or arrested overseas on a warrant).

This pie chart gives the totals for each borough (including the City of London):

Asked by murdermap for a comment on the decrease in homicides, DCS Hamish Campbell, head of homicide investigations at Scotland Yard, said: “It is always encouraging to see a drop in the number of homicides and serious crime. We liaise with many agencies in the course of our work, and the co-operation we receive from the community is vital in driving down these types of offences.

“The Metropolitan Police will continue to be rigorous in the detection and investigation of murders in the capital.”

UPDATE: On January 23 DCI Campbell gave a fuller response to the Evening Standard giving the official Met Police figures of 99 homicides in 2012.

Read Safe London – murder rate hits 42 year low – Evening Standard

NOTE: We had originally counted 95 homicides: Since then we have added the case of Delores Smith (December 27) and Douglas Hutchinson (December 13, suspect originally charged with attempted murder).

NOTE UPDATE (Jan 2014): Two further homicides for 2012 were later added, making a total of 99.

Unsolved Murders in London: 2012

These four murder cases in London in 2012 remain unsolved. Can you help? Contact Crimestoppers on 0800 555 111.

Earl ‘Duke’ Warburton, 58, died after being assaulted during a robbery of his flat in Loampit Hill, Lewisham. Police were called to the address at around 2.25am on 15 February 2012. Mr Warburton, who was a well known character who ran a brothel named ‘Madonnas’, had suffered multiple injuries and was pronounced dead 15 minutes later. A reward of £20,000 was offered for information leading to the prosecution of those responsible for the murder but nobody was charged. On the second anniversary of the killing, DI Rick Murphy said: “We are particularly keen to speak to anyone who was in the area at the time of the attack and who may have seen or heard anything suspicious. We are also keen to speak to anyone who may have worked for him in the weeks or months leading up to his attack. We appreciate that given the nature of the business Mr Warburton ran people may be concerned about coming forward. We would like to stress that any information will be treated in the strictest confidence.” Contact the incident room on 020 8721 4868.

Marvin Hogan, 28, was stabbed to death for his car keys in Leyton, east London, on Monday 4 June, 2012. He was attacked after getting out of his silver Vauxhall Astra in Winsor Road during a row with a group of men. Mr Hogan was found injured in Thornhill Gardens at around 9.40pm and died in hospital in the early hours of the following morning. A postmortem gave the cause of death as a stab wound to the chest. His keyring, which held his car keys and the entry key to his flat, was stolen during the attack. Seven men were arrested but nobody was charged. During a renewed appeal in January 2013, Mr Hogan’s mother Jean Alleyne said: “l would like to appeal to anyone that knows anything about my son’s death to come forward, you do not have to leave your name this can be done anonymously. I feel that these were local boys who committed this murder and took my son away at a very young age from the people that loved him. I also appeal to family members, aunts, uncles and friends to do the right thing in helping to bring this person to justice that took my son from me and his family so cruelly that bank holiday Monday while I was at work. This person is still out there walking around free probably not far from where my son was murdered I want him caught so can have my peace. I will not rest until my son’s killer has been found.” Anyone with information is asked to contact the incident room on 020 8721 4805.

Pamela Wheeler, a 76 year-old widow, was found dead at her home after a suspected burglary. Police were called to the house in New Acres Road, Thamesmead, south London, at around 6.25pm on Sunday 22 July, 2012. Her wrists and ankles had been tied together and a postmortem gave the cause of death as suffocation and head injury. The last confirmed sighting of Mrs Wheeler was at a local Morrison’s supermarket on 9 July. Neighbours noticed that she had not left out food for the cats on the morning of Friday 20 July. Renewing the police appeal in July 2013, DCI Graeme Gwyn said: “This investigation remains open and I am keen to speak with anyone who has yet to come forward to police with any information that may assist our enquiries. Pam was attacked in her own home, and I am certain that someone has information that will assist us in bringing the perpetrator of this horrific and violent death to justice.” There were no publicised arrests. Contact the incident room on 020 8721 4805.

Teon Palmer, 28, was stabbed in the chest in Lower Edmonton, north London, at around 11.10pm on Saturday 20 October 2012. Detectives believe his car had all four tyres slashed shortly before the attack in Montague Road at the junction with Goodwin Road. Mr Palmer was pronounced dead at the scene. Witnesses saw up to seven black males wearing hooded tops or jackets leaving the scene. Four of them are believed to have been on bicycles. Four men aged between 20 and 23 were arrested but nobody was charged. On the fourth anniversary of the murder, DI John Marriott said: “I strongly believe that there are people, who were not there that night, who know who stabbed Teon. I would urge them to contact us. It is also possible that allegiances have changed, and that someone, who may not have wished to speak with police at the time, may now be encouraged to do so. Teon’s family deserve to know what happened.” Contact the incident room on 0208 345 1570.

Domestic Violence part 2

Last month we looked in detail at the issue of domestic violence (or intimate partner) homicides in London by looking at the cases for 2011. In part two, we compare the figures for previous years.

So what are the trends in ‘DV’ homicides in London over the last five years?

In brief, over 2008 to 2011:

The proportion of DV cases increased from around 11 per cent to 13 per cent.
The number of DV cases remains relatively constant each year
The percentage of female victims fluctuates over time but is usually around 20 to 22 per cent

However the preliminary figures for 2012 (subject to change) are 19 female victims out of 93 total, or 20.4 per cent, of which 10 appear to be DV cases, or 10.8 per cent).

Obviously dealing with such a short time frame and relatively small numbers makes the identification of any real trends difficult. However, it seems that the decrease in homicide over the last five years does not really apply to female victims or domestic violence.

Year	2008	2009	2010	2011
Total victims	145	131	123	117
Female victims	32	23	30	26
Percentage Female	22.1	17.6	24.4	22.2
DV (both sexes)	16	14	15	15
Percentage DV	11	10.7	12.2	12.8

Note: For the category ‘Domestic Violence’ we have included all cases that involve men or women being killed by their partners or ex-partners. Some cases involve little or no history of violence and a small number of others are often described as ‘mercy killings.’

The full case listings are below (click on name to read summary in new window).

2008: Total number of ‘domestic violence’ cases: 16 (out of total 145 homicides, or 11.0 per cent)

Yvonne Barlow, 44, stabbed to death by her partner.

Emma Forrester, 34, stabbed to death by her husband.

Michael O’Brien, 43, stabbed to death by his girlfriend.

Graham Boyne, 41, stabbed to death by his wife.

Arsema Dawit, 15, stabbed to death by her ex-boyfriend.

Samantha Boyden, 36, stabbed to death by her partner.

Abiodun Ilumoka, 40, stabbed to death by her partner.

Rahmona Ahmedin, 23, stabbed to death by her partner.

Ashley Reynolds, 23, thrown to her death by her partner.

Jusna Sabit, 36, battered to death by her husband.

Dina Sharpe, 39, battered to death by her partner.

Marilyn Leslie, 49, stabbed to death by her partner.

Shireen Khan, 41, strangled by her husband. (He was cleared of murder on the basis he was provoked).

Tara Reeves, 35, stabbed to death by her partner.

Kate Ellerbeck, 46, killed by her husband.

Tatiana Konalova, 47, stabbed to death by her husband.

2009: Total number of ‘domestic violence’ cases: 14 (out of total 131 homicides, or 10.7 per cent)

Lakhvinder Cheema, 39, poisoned by his ex-lover.

Varsha Champaclal, 43, stabbed to death by her husband.

Kulvir Kaur, 22, strangled by her husband.

Gloria Laguna, 48, killed by her husband.

Camille Mathurasingh, 27, stabbed to death by her ex-boyfriend.

Darryl Phillips, 39, stabbed to death by his lover.

Elif Oruc, 42, stabbed to death by her husband.

Maleha Masud, 15, killed by her ex-boyfriend in a house fire.

Leah Questin, 37, killed by her boyfriend.

Lisa Beverley, 30, was battered to death by her ex-partner.

Olga Pleguezuelos, 35, was stabbed to death by her husband.

Geeta Aulakh, 28, was hacked to death on the orders of her husband.

Aysel Djevdet, 38, strangled by her husband.

Julie McKinley, 40, strangled by her husband.

There is also Natalie Correa, 27, who was battered to death at her home. Her boyfriend was acquitted of murder. Ayodele Akinsiku, 32, was stabbed to death by her brother-in-law.

2010: Total number of ‘domestic violence’ cases: 15 (out of total 123 homicides, or 12.2 per cent of total)

Maria Colaco, 50, battered to death by her partner.

Maria Coelho, 37, battered and suffocated by her partner.

Carmen Stanescu, 30, stabbed to death by her partner.

Czarina Baker, 21, strangled by her partner.

Donna Drepaul, 50, set on fire by her partner.

Sandra Voicehovska, 47, stabbed to death by her partner.

Svetlana Zolotovska, 40, stabbed to death by her estranged husband. Her mother was also killed.

Amanda Beresford, 36, set on fire by her partner.

Ghada Habib, 55, battered to death by her ex-husband.

Beata Slomiana, 33, suffocated by her ex-partner.

Indra Tharmananthan, 70, strangled by her mentally ill partner.

Jacqueline Barrett, 34, battered and strangled by her partner.

Joan Mungall, 69, smothered by her husband in what was described as a mercy killing.

Winifred Crowther, 83, stabbed to death by her husband.

Joan Chopping, 84, killed by her husband.

See the previous blog for the list of 2011 cases

Domestic Violence Murders in London in 2011

Domestic violence is said to account for 40 per cent of all female homicide victims in England and Wales. The other frequently reported statistic is that two women are killed by a male partner or ex-partner every week (from the Home Office analysis carried out in relation to the financial year 2003/4).

But how does this compare to London? We decided to look at the homicide cases in the capital during 2011 to see how they compare to the quoted statistics.

In summary, 26 out of out of the 117 homicide victims (22.2 per cent) in our database for last year were female. Fourteen of those 26 (57.7 per cent) were women killed by their husband, partner or ex-partner. In six of the 14 cases there was a definite history of domestic violence in the relationship, and in a seventh the suspect was on bail as a result of a previous incident.

Two of the 14 are commonly referred to as ‘murder-suicides’ where the killer committed suicide before they could be arrested.

Here is a list of the victims we’ve identified (click the link to read the case summary):

January 1: Jitka Nahodilova, 27, stabbed to death by her partner, who committed suicide.

February 2: Lorna Smith, 45, stabbed / suffocated by her ex-boyfriend.

April 20: Zandra Maxwell-Nelson, 24, stabbed to death by her estranged husband.

April 26: Lucinda Port, 29, stabbed to death by her partner, who committed suicide. Previous involvement of police.

June 20: Sarwat Malik, 60, stabbed to death by her husband.

July 5: Mumtahina Jannat, 29, strangled by her husband. History of domestic violence.

September 12: Sashana Roberts, 24, stabbed to death by her ex-partner. History of domestic violence.

September 26: Charito Cruz, 37, battered to death by her partner (suspect awaiting trial)

October 8: Gaynor Brockwell, 46, strangled by her husband.

November 11: Amina Adan, 32, beaten and stabbed to death by her partner. History of domestic violence.

November 19: Carmel Charles, 20, stabbed to death, believed to be domestic (the suspect is awaiting trial).

December 20: Jasmin Chowdhury, 33, beaten to death by her husband. History of domestic violence.

December 23: Desirie Thomas, 35, stabbed to death by her husband. History of domestic violence.

December 25: Ruby Love, 23, strangled by her partner and dumped in a canal. History of domestic violence.

But not every case is clear cut – for example Fiza Asif, 27, was murdered by her brother-in-law on January 4. Her husband was charged with murder but was acquitted.

Only one case out of 117 involves a male victim being killed by their female partner: Winston Sinclair, 73, fatally stabbed by his wife on January 16.

Additionally there is the case of Mohammed Zillur-Rahman, stabbed to death by his stepson – who claimed the victim was violent towards him and his mother.

In one or two other cases the nature of the relationship between victim and killer is unclear (see for example Siobahn Kelly).

We have not included cases of homicide involving relatives, even though they occurred in a domestic setting.

In our next blog we will look at the cases for 2008, 2009 and 2010 and see how they compare.

Note: Earlier this week the Metropolitan Police launched an operation targeting ‘domestic abusers’.