Murder is down in London during the last 50 days – but is that because of the coronavirus restrictions? Crime fell by 35 per cent in London during the past six weeks of “lockdown” compared to the same period last year, according to The Times. Knife crime was down 50…

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One reply on “The Lockdown Effect”

  1. Quite right about this crime occurring in clusters. Makes for irrational and reckless newspaper headlines. Wish that would stop.
    Clusters very evident during lockdown. With some extremely rare murder types (the father slashing his children’s throats for instance) inflating the number higher than it probably should be for this period. Although you could argue that incident was a part of the inevitable spike in domestic killings.
    We’ve seen similar extra-rare incidents this year, such as the triple murder in Ilford early in the year.
    I’ve been watching the numbers in US cities. Violence exploded in Chicago in April after a very mild March, and it’s been a violent lockdown. But similarly to what you’ve posted, compared to 2016 + 2017, there have been fewer homicides/murders – except they were exceptionally violent years (particularly 2016, which saw over 800 homicides).
    NYC saw an early spike, but that tailed off. Philly maintained it’s bad start to the year and Baltimore’s rate of incidentd jumps all over the place, but overall about the same as the last few years. Slowed in LA.
    I fear there will be a big spike here at some point when we’re all allowed back out. There seems to be a social phenomenon that ensures numbers balance themselves out over a year, some way, some how.
    I expect lots of pent up energy and stress to unleash in peculiar but violent ways. Hope to god I’m wrong though.
    Good post. Happy to subscribe.

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